![]() ![]() They need to build a viable alternate ecosystem to Microsoft’s empire. In order to succeed, Notion shouldn’t just focus on its own success. And the point of this battle isn’t who makes more money, it is whether Notion exists in 5 years. Yet again we are left asking - who wins? □ Notion’s Path to Victory (The Rebel Alliance Strategy) #Notion microsoft to do software#Unfortunately for Notion (and my Bachelor’s Degree in Software Engineering), injustice doesn’t pay the bills. But I would be surprised if we aren’t in the ballpark give or take 10M. ![]() To put that in perspective, Office 365 does about 37.5 Notions worth of revenue per year. Note: This is all Napkin Math! It is in the name of the newsletter folks. Giving them an incredibly generous 40% conversion rate (which would probably put it at one of the highest of all time for SaaS) and an identical ARR per user at $8, Notion should be around $64M in ARR. #Notion microsoft to do free#In comparison, Notion has 20M+ total users, both free and paid. The division that houses Office 365 did $15B last quarter and 365 likely makes a higher portion than 16% of that total revenue so my math is probably a little bearish. At an ARR per User of ~8 dollars, you are looking at a product that pumps out around $2.4B in high margin revenue a year. Microsoft has 300M+ active Office 365 subscriptions where Loop would be included in that bundle. But Notion is infinitesimal in comparison to Microsoft’s business. Now some of you may feel this is a little silly, these are both big companies. This blows! I know we are talking about a multi-trillion dollar company and a $10B company, but for some reason it still feels like a megacorp taking advantage of a mom & pop shop. This is the exact same move that Microsoft pulled with Netscape, with Slack, and now they are doing it to Notion. But the design is identical and they cover loosely similar formats. Theologically there are some differences - rather than focusing on in-app documents, Loop is more geared towards connecting with existing Microsoft products. ![]() In real words, it is a piece of digital paper that people can draw on all at the same time. #Notion microsoft to do full#This description is so stuffed full of product marketing nonsense that while typing it I feel my brain turning into buzzword jelly. Notion is a productivity tool that allows teams to collaborate, store knowledge, and run processes. □So, What is Notion and Why Did Microsoft Copy Them? Learning to win when your opponent has a superior position and resources to you is a classic conundrum of building businesses. I hope this can be a helpful guide for anyone who’s dealing with their own David vs Goliath situation. To finish, I’ll cast my predictions for the future. How do you win when your competitor has more money, better distribution, and can undercut you on price? To understand this problem I’ll go through the tough financial battle Notion has ahead of it, and what strategies they are responding with. I want them to win! But the question is how.įor today’s article, I’d like to dive into this problem. Personally, I love Notion! It is a beautiful piece of software that significantly improves my life. If history is any guide, the odds don’t look great for Notion. ![]() They are set to release an almost exact clone early next year. Notion - darling of the productivity software space, recently valued at $ 10B - is now firmly in Microsoft’s crosshairs. ![]()
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